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2024-12-14 00:08:43

Four people were injured when a bus in Jerusalem was shot, and four people were injured when a bus was shot at a tunnel checkpoint in the south of Jerusalem, one of whom was seriously injured.The United Nations General Assembly voted to pass two Gaza-related resolutions, and the United States and Israel voted against them again. On December 11th, local time, the 10th emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly resumed. Before the end of the General Assembly, the General Assembly voted to adopt two resolutions, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of detainees, and supporting the activities of UNRWA. Among them, the resolution supporting the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East in fulfilling its mandate received 159 votes in favor, 11 abstentions and 9 votes against. The resolution affirmed its full support for the Agency's mission and denounced the relevant Israeli legislation. The resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza received 158 votes in favour, 13 abstentions and 9 votes against. The resolution once again called on Gaza to cease fire and release the detainees, and emphasized the importance of accountability. The United States and Israel voted against both resolutions.Blackstone secured loan fund will issue 300 million USD 5.350% unsecured notes at a fixed price, with a maturity date of 2028.


The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 98.6%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.4%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 19%.Brazil raised the benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points to 12.25%. Brazil's central bank expects the next two meetings to raise interest rates by the same amount.Canada's stock index closed up 0.6% on the day when the central bank cut interest rates, Brazil's real rose over 1% on the day when the central bank raised interest rates, and Canada's S&P /TSX composite index closed up 0.60% at 25,657.70 points, approaching the closing record high of 25,691.80 points on December 6 and the intraday record high of 25,843.20 points on December 9. Small-cap stocks closed up 0.74% at 847.15 points. In late North America on Wednesday (December 11th), the yield of Canada's 10-year benchmark government bonds rose by 6.7 basis points to 3.085%. The yield of debt increase in the two-year period rose by 5.3 basis points to 2.941%. After the US CPI inflation data was released at 21:30 Beijing time, the refresh rate was as low as 2.827%. After the Bank of Canada announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut at 22:45, it pulled back steeply from 2.84% to 2.960% at 03:06. The yield of five-year debt increase rose by 6.1 basis points to 2.891%. Mexico Composite Index closed down 0.17%, while Mexican peso rose 0.11% against the US dollar. The index of Sao Paulo Stock Exchange in Brazil closed up 1.06% to 130,000 points, and since it rose to a record high of 137,000 points on August 28th, it has been continuously and smoothly adjusted back. The Brazilian real rose by 1.43% against the US dollar, and it was reported at R $5.9647 before the Brazilian central bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points and predicted that it would raise interest rates in the next two times.


Guotai Junan: A shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. Recently, Guotai Junan's 2025 strategy meeting will be held in Shenzhen. The conference made an in-depth discussion and comprehensive outlook on the hot topics of market concern and the investment strategy in 2025. Fang Yi, chief strategist of Guotai Junan, said in an interview that the bottom of the A-share market has emerged, which is optimistic about the prospects of China stock market. The key driving force for the market to start comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference. After a long period of continuous adjustment, the pessimistic expectation and microstructure of A-shares are fully clarified, and the positive signal of decision-makers to steady economic growth and support the capital market is an important cornerstone for the upward revision of long-term expectations and the elevation of the bottom of the stock market. Looking forward to the A-share market in 2025, Fang Yi said that there is still room for the optimistic policy expectation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and A-shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. However, in the case of rising geopolitical conflict risks, the stock index may face a staged headwind. However, as the market stabilizes and revises the economic and policy expectations, the stock index is expected to strengthen again in the second half of 2025. (shanghai securities news)In November, LP, a financial institution, injected nearly 30 billion yuan into private equity funds. Judging from the latest capital contribution of private equity funds, the reporter learned from Zhizhong Data Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. that in November, the national private equity funds invested 486 pens, with a total capital contribution of 99.761 billion yuan. Judging from the contribution of LP (Limited Partner) with different identities, in November, government funds LP made a total of 178 contributions, with a total contribution of 39.9 billion yuan, accounting for 40%. LP, the industrial investor, contributed a total of 175 transactions, with a total investment of 13 billion yuan. The financial institution LP contributed a total of 29.948 billion yuan, of which the insurance institution LP contributed 16.488 billion yuan, accounting for 55%; Banking institution LP contributed 12.259 billion yuan, accounting for 41%. (Securities Daily)CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.

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